Vietnam Economic Outlook

 

The Vietnamese economy shifted into a lower gear this year as adverse weather conditions damaged a large share of agricultural output, which accounts for almost 20% of GDP. The economy grew 5.6% on an annual basis in Q2, which was broadly stable compared to Q1 but represents a clear deceleration from the growth rate tallied in Q2 2015. Against the backdrop of a slowing economy, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc announced in late July that the government will continue to push forward measures aimed at supporting businesses and spurring domestic demand to reach the country’s yearly growth target of 6.7%. He nevertheless added that the government will not implement measures that could cause the economy to overheat, as happened in 2011, when inflation spiked and the currency depreciated sharply. This suggests that the government is also considering lowering the growth forecast to avoid these past mistakes.

Vietnam Economy Data

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Population (million) 87.8 88.8 89.7 90.6 91.6
GDP per capita (USD) 1,373 1,754 1,894 2,032 2,036
GDP (USD bn) 121 156 170 184 186
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) 6.2 5.2 5.4 6.0 6.7
Consumption (annual variation in %) 4.1 4.9 5.2 6.1
Investment (annual variation in %) -7.8 1.9 5.3 9.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 13.5 4.8 5.9 7.5 9.8
Unemployment Rate 3.6 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -0.5 -3.4 -4.7 -4.4
Public Debt (% of GDP) 46.7 48.5 52.4 55.5
Money (annual variation in %) 12.1 34.9 4.4 17.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 18.1 6.8 6.0 1.8 0.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) 18.6 9.3 6.6 4.2 0.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) 18.4 9.3 5.3 3.3 -0.3
Policy Interest Rate (%) 15.00 9.00 7.00 6.50 6.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD) 21,034 20,840 21,095 21,388 22,485
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) 20,663 20,874 21,029 21,198 21,929
Current Account (% of GDP) 0.2 6.0 4.6 5.1 0.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 0.2 9.3 7.7 9.4 0.9
Trade Balance (USD billion) -8.9 2.0 0.4 0.8 -4.1
Exports (USD billion) 95.4 114 133 150 162
Imports (USD billion) 104 112 133 149 166
Exports (annual variation in %) 33.1 20.0 16.5 12.6 7.9
Imports (annual variation in %) 24.4 7.9 18.2 12.3 11.3
International Reserves (USD) 13.5 25.6 25.9 34.2
External Debt (% of GDP) 44.0 38.0 38.5 39.0

(August 23, 2016)

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